CITATIONS FOR CLAIMS MADE
Claim: $30-35 Trillion Market Size, over 20% of Global output for full and up to 30% including Trade partners.
Sources:
- IMF GDP, current prices (March, 2026)
Total Global GDP: $117 Trillion USD
POTENTIAL FULL PARTNERS
Figures in Billions of USD
| Norway | 548 |
| Sweden | 711 |
| Finland | 336 |
| Denmark | 500 |
| Iceland | 43 |
| Australia | 1,950 |
| New Zealand | 281 |
| Germany | 5,330 |
| Netherlands | 1,410 |
| Switzerland | 1,070 |
| Ireland | 750 |
| Luxembourg | 108 |
| Austria | 604 |
| Belgium | 761 |
| Canada | 2,420 |
| UK | 4,230 |
| Japan | 4,460 |
| Taiwan | 971 |
| Estonia | 51 |
| Uruguay | 91 |
Total: $26.6 Trillion USD = 22.7% of global GDP
POTENTIAL TRADE PARTNERS
| France | 3,560 |
| Italy | 2,700 |
| Spain | 2,040 |
| Portugal | 365 |
| South Korea | 1,940 |
| Czech Republic | 417 |
| Slovenia | 86 |
| Lithuania | 105 |
| Latvia | 52 |
Total: $11.3 Trillion USD = 9.7% of global GDP
Full plus potential: $26.6 + $11.3 = $37.9 Trillion USD
22.7% + 9.7% = 32.4% of global GDP
Claim: Autocratic regimes leverage supply chains to coerce democratic nations
Sources:
- China/Australia trade war 2020-2023 : https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Australia%E2%80%93China_trade_war
- China/Lithuania 2021 : https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/China%E2%80%93Lithuania_relations
- China/South Korea THAAD sanctions 2017 : https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/China%E2%80%93South_Korea_relations
- Russia/Europe gas supply 2022-2023 : https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022%E2%80%932023_Russia%E2%80%93European_Union_gas_dispute
- China/Norway salmon embargo 2010 : https://www.e-jei.org/upload/JEI_38_1_93_114_2013600289.pdf
- Farrell & Newman (2019) “Weaponized Interdependence” — International Security journal. : https://direct.mit.edu/isec/article/44/1/42/12237/Weaponized-Interdependence-How-Global-Economic
Claim: 40% of global Active Pharmaceutical Ingredients (APIs) are concentrated in non-member jurisdictions
Sources
- https://qualitymatters.usp.org/global-manufacturing-capacity-active-pharmaceutical-ingredients-remains-concentrated#:~:text=India:%20In%201981%2C%20India%20had,DMF%20submissions%20in%20the%20future.
- https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC8085627/
- https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/econographics/pharmaceuticals-are-chinas-next-trade-weapon/#:~:text=Chinese%20firms%20are%20even%20more,manufacturers%20while%20ignoring%20gunpowder%20suppliers
- U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission (USCC) 2019 report on pharmaceutical supply chains; FDA Drug Shortages reports; Rosemary Gibson “China Rx” (2018) : https://www.uscc.gov/sites/default/files/2019-10/July%2031,%202019%20Hearing%20Transcript.pdf
Claim: Democratic Backsliding Is Accelerating
Sources:
- https://freedomhouse.org/report/freedom-world/2026/growing-shadow-autocracy
- https://freedomhouse.org/article/after-20-years-global-decline-these-basic-freedoms-have-been-hit-hardest
- https://www.v-dem.net/documents/75/V-Dem_Institute_Democracy_Report_2026_lowres.pdf
- https://www.eiu.com/n/democracy-index-2024/
Claim: Critical Supply Chain Concentration in Non-Democratic Jurisdictions
Sources
- https://www.asiapacific.ca/publication/taiwan-canada-and-global-semiconductor-race
- https://www.forbes.com/sites/miltonezrati/2023/12/11/how-much-control-does-china-have-over-rare-earth-elements/
- https://www.csis.org/analysis/what-chinas-ban-rare-earths-processing-technology-exports-means
- https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2022/12/14/rare-earth-mines-00071102
Claim: “Chip Market Surpassing $1 Trillion”
Sources
- https://www.wsts.org/76/103/WSTS-Semiconductor-Market-Forecast-Spring-2025
- https://www.mckinsey.com/industries/semiconductors/our-insights/hiding-in-plain-sight-the-underestimated-size-of-the-semiconductor-industry
- https://www.theglobeandmail.com/investing/markets/stocks/TSM/pressreleases/29085568/taiwan-semiconductors-profit-rises-54-as-ai-demand-soars/
Claim: China Lifted 800 Million from Poverty
Sources:
Claim: EU Anti-Coercion Instrument
Sources:
- https://eur-lex.europa.eu/eli/reg/2023/2675/oj/eng
Claim: EU Forced Labour Regulation
Sources:
Claim: Economic Precarity and Democratic Vulnerability
Sources:
- https://www.ddorn.net/papers/Autor-Dorn-Hanson-ChinaShock.pdf
- https://shapingwork.mit.edu/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/Autor-Dorn-Hanson-Oct-2021.pdf
- https://equitablegrowth.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/05/China-trade-shock.pdf
- https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Elephant_Curve
- https://theconversation.com/is-inequality-a-natural-phenomenon-thomas-piketty-argues-it-isnt-and-proposes-a-way-forward-240325
- https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/14650045.2025.2485209
- https://lup.lub.lu.se/student-papers/search/publication/9136821